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Who is the final winner of agricultural machinery enterprises?
時間:2016/10/29 16:02:51

Guide reading
At present, there are 18 listed enterprises in the new third board of agricultural machinery industry, accounting for 0.2% of the total listed enterprises, which has not yet formed a significant cluster effect. In the next few years, the pace of listing the new third board of agricultural machinery enterprises will be accelerated.





  "Shanghai New Third Board Listing" is regarded by many small and medium-sized enterprises as a shortcut to enter the capital market. After a series of clear policies at the macro level, the number and scale of new third board listing enterprises has expanded dramatically. As of August 23, 2016, the number of listed companies on the new third board has reached 8846. At the same time, the news of agricultural machinery industry enterprises landing on the new third board is also endless. Since June this year, four industry enterprises, including Yongjia Power, a gardening and plant protection machinery manufacturer, Sanxi Agricultural Machinery, Yijia, a tractor and agricultural machinery manufacturer, and Debang Dawei, a comprehensive agricultural production service provider, have successfully traded on the new third board.
As an important part of China's multi-level capital market, the expanded new third board market mainly faces innovative, entrepreneurial and high-growth enterprises. However, as a typical traditional manufacturing industry, agricultural machinery obviously has a great gap in innovation and growth ability compared with Internet and high-end manufacturing industry, but there are still 18 agricultural machinery enterprises listed on the new third board one after another, which fully reflects the inclusive characteristics of the new third board market, which is to solve the small and medium-sized agricultural machinery industry. It is of great significance to promote the implementation of the national strategy of structural reform on the supply side of enterprises.
The mood of listing is high
At present, there are 18 listed enterprises in the new third board of agricultural machinery industry, accounting for 0.2% of the total listed enterprises, which has not yet formed a significant cluster effect. Among them, only one (modern agricultural apparel) is listed before expansion, and the remaining 17 are listed after expansion. As the new third board does not have financial and scale restrictions, it can be listed as long as it meets the conditions of two years'existence, clear main business, sound governance mechanism, recommendation and continuous supervision by the sponsor securities firm. Therefore, driven by many factors, such as enterprise's own power, media promotion, local government discount and interest discount, the listing mood of agricultural machinery enterprises is rising. 2016 is not over yet, and the number of newly listed enterprises in that year has reached 6, which is the same as that in 2015. It is understood that a number of agricultural machinery industry enterprises are in the process of listing operation, and it is expected that in 2016, the number of listed enterprises in the new third board of agricultural machinery industry will exceed 10.
_From the point of view of category distribution, the main manufacturers of agricultural machinery are 11 listed enterprises, accounting for 61.1%. Four of them are engaged in grain and cash crop drying machinery. Four agricultural machinery suppliers, accounting for 22.2%, are engaged in structural components, electrical components, steel ring components and transmission components. There are 3 Agro-machinery enterprises, accounting for 16.7%.
_It needs to be noted that these three Agro-machinery enterprises have their own characteristics: the main business of Yinfeng, Xinjiang, provides socialized services for cotton machinery harvesting, with the dual background of Xinjiang Construction Corps and supply and marketing cooperatives; and the shares of Keshen are also related to Xinjiang Construction Corps, whose predecessor is the promotion of agricultural machinery of the Corps. Debang Dawei is a system integrator specializing in the whole process of modern agricultural production. It is said that since its inception, Debang Dawei has operated and managed its financial affairs according to the listing standards. It took only five and a half years from its inception to the listing of the new third board.
_From the point of view of the establishment time of each enterprise, the vast majority of enterprises survive for more than five years, mainly in 8-10 years. Among them, Sanxi Agricultural Machinery was founded on November 30, 2012 and listed on July 1, 2016. It took only three years and eight months from its establishment to its listing. While setting a record, Sanxi Agricultural Machinery is also a stimulant for other planned listed agricultural machinery enterprises.
Growth is generally lacking in star companies


  Among the 18 listed enterprises, 17 Listed Enterprises in agricultural machinery industry are generally small in scale except for modern agricultural clothing. The number of employees, asset scale and operating income of enterprises are relatively close, and the standard deviation of scale index is not high.
From the number of employees, the general scale is less than 200 people, which is slightly lower than the average of 236 people in the whole city of the new third board.
From the scale of assets, the average value of total assets at the end of the period is 238 million yuan, which is equivalent to the average value of 225 million yuan in the whole city of the new third board.
From the perspective of business income, the average revenue in 2015 is 108 million yuan, which is slightly lower than the average of 147 million yuan in the whole city of the new third board and 185 million yuan in the 2319 enterprises of scale in the agricultural industry. The highest revenue scale is Yongjia Power, which is 330 million yuan. At the same time, its revenue growth rate is 7528.8% and operating profit growth rate is 1807%. Although the revenue growth rate is far ahead of other agricultural machinery enterprises, it needs to be noted that its profit growth lags behind the growth of operating income. The smallest revenue scale was Monto farm machinery, which was engaged in the manufacture of forage machinery. It was 2.32 million yuan, up 81% compared with the business income, but the business profit also showed a significant decline, down 84% compared with the same period last year. Comparatively speaking, the business income of Sanxi Agricultural Machinery and Yijia Stock Company is more valuable. It not only achieves more than 50% growth in business income over the same period, but also achieves 169% and 496% growth in business profit over the same period.
_Owing to the different subdivisions of listed enterprises and the different levels of operation and management among enterprises, the profitability among enterprises varies greatly, and there is a certain gap between the average level of the whole city and the whole industry.
_Looking from the loss side, there are two enterprises that have recorded deficits, and the loss side is 11.1%. It should be noted that modern agricultural apparel lost nearly 370 million yuan in 2015 alone, nearly three times the total profits of the remaining 17 Listed companies.
Excluding modern farm clothing, the average net profit in 2015 is 7.59 million yuan, which is about 1/3 lower than the average of 10.13 million yuan in the whole city of Xinsanban and 10.86 million yuan in the 2319 enterprises of scale in the agricultural machinery industry. Among them, the most profitable is Yinfeng in Xinjiang, and the bottom one is San Hua Agricultural Science.
As a typical traditional manufacturing industry, agricultural machinery industry has strong periodicity and general growth. In the past two years, the agricultural machinery industry has not only directly felt the pressure of the "new normal" under the macroeconomic downturn, but also been affected by the product renewal and replacement cycle, product life cycle, natural growth cycle of crops, climate change cycle and other cyclical factors. Moreover, the downward price of agricultural products, the adjustment of agricultural planting structure and agriculture have also been affected. The change of subsidy policy for machine purchase is influenced by many complex factors, such as many aspects and links. Taking maize harvesters as an example, according to the latest statistics of China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, in the first half of 2016, the output of self-propelled maize harvesters of key enterprises was only 14046, the cumulative growth rate dropped by 42.7%.
The embarrassment of having no market for value



  

  On June 27, 2016, the new third board officially implemented the hierarchical system, dividing the listed companies into basic and innovative levels. Listed companies intend to enter the innovation level, they have to undergo more rigorous access standards review, and after entering, they have to face maintenance standards and dynamic management. Compared with the conditions of entering the innovation level, the listed enterprises in agricultural machinery industry still have a long way to go. At present, all listed companies in agricultural machinery industry are at the basic level.
The practice since the expansion shows that the new third board market not only provides a channel for SMEs to enter the open capital market for direct financing, but also provides an exit channel and investment channel for domestic institutional investors. However, through data analysis, it is found that the liquidity of equity capital of listed enterprises in agricultural machinery industry is poor, and the expected price discovery function needs to be gradually improved. Firstly, the average number of listed companies'equity is 48.62 million shares, which ranks in the middle and lower reaches of the new third board city. It is worth noting that the listed agricultural machinery enterprises have a high degree of ownership concentration, and it is urgent to improve the degree of publicity by decentralizing their ownership. At present, the average shareholding ratio of the top ten shareholders has reached 93.1%, and there are only two shareholders who have been listed for more than one year. Excessive concentration of equity is not conducive to active trading, nor is it conducive to the formation of a relatively stable market valuation through fair share prices.
Secondly, the latest market value of 7 listed companies can be found, with an average market value of 258 million yuan, which is about 65% of the average market value of 400 million yuan of the new third board. Excluding two companies with negative P/E ratio and one company with abnormal P/E ratio, the average P/E ratio of the remaining four companies is 28.1, which is close to the market average of 26.5. The remaining 11 companies could not find the latest market value, possibly because they did not obtain fair share price through directional issuance, equity market transactions, etc. for a long time, or because the listing time was too short.

  Thirdly, there are four listed companies that adopt market-making transfer, which is slightly higher than the new third board in the whole city. However, it should be noted that the number of market makers in the four enterprises is between 2 and 4, which is still far from the requirement of "not less than 6 market makers" needed to step into the innovation layer. In addition, on June 1, 2016, there are only 4 trading records of equity in the last three months, and the average number of trading shares is only 422,000 shares per family, less than half of the market average of 867,000 shares per family in the new third board, which fully demonstrates the embarrassing situation that listed agricultural machinery enterprises are facing with "no market at all" and "no market at all".
However, from the beneficiary side of directional additional issuance, seven enterprises have successfully implemented a certain increase, benefiting 41.2%. Among them, Monto farm machinery and Howell have achieved good results. The proportion of net assets raised by Monto farm machinery is 92.7%, which can effectively supplement its liquidity demand. Howell has been listed for only two and a half years, but has successfully implemented four fixed increases. At the same time, there are still 10 companies that have never successfully implemented a fixed increase, including two companies that have been listed for more than 18 months. In addition, 17 enterprises have three additional issuances under way, with an additional 16.455 million shares planned to raise 65.18 million yuan. From the total amount of indirect financing, 17 enterprises have accumulated 956 million yuan of indirect financing, benefiting 76.5%.
_Why is the liquidity of equity and equity of listed enterprises in agricultural machinery industry poor, and even there are several "zombie enterprises" that have never been traded? The author believes that there are three main reasons:
Firstly, the wine is not fragrant enough. From the previous analysis, it is not difficult to see that the texture of most listed enterprises in the agricultural machinery industry is not the best in the new third board city. The new third board has a threshold of more than 5 million yuan for qualified investors, and the value investment attribute of the market is stronger, which is more suitable for the activities of institutional investors. Institutional investors have different investing ability and rationality from retail investors and price speculation in the secondary market. They pay more attention to the fundamentals of listed companies. In addition, because the listing threshold is much lower than the motherboard, there are also many investors with doubts, driven by the Matthew effect of "the strong will always be strong", they are more willing to move closer to the star companies of the new three boards.
The second is "deeper lanes". Agricultural machinery industry is a new traditional manufacturing industry developed after the implementation of the subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase in 2004. Compared with the star areas of automobile and construction machinery manufacturing industry, few investors know and are familiar with this field. At present, no securities firm or research institute has publicly published a research report on the new three-board listed enterprises in the agricultural machinery industry. In addition, from January 1 to August 23, 2016, there are only three authoritative and reliable sources of news about the new three-board listed enterprises in the agricultural machinery industry. Most of them are the summaries of the annual reports of listed enterprises and the news bulletins of newly listed enterprises. Professional in-depth news reports have not yet been found.
Thirdly, the search cost is too high. Because most of the listed agricultural machinery enterprises adopt the method of agreement transfer, the buyers and sellers should search for the trading object and conclude the transaction by themselves. The cost of searching information is too high, and the information asymmetry will also lead to high failure rate of the transaction. The transaction under the mode of agreement transfer belongs to the directional transaction, and the transaction process has no continuity, which can not reflect the more fair company value; while in the mode of market-making transfer, the market maker must constantly provide bidirectional quotation, which will form the time-series price, which can give full play to the price discovery function of the capital market and also improve the hang-up. The liquidity of share rights and interests of brand enterprises. In addition, because there is no limit on price increase or decline in the way of agreement transfer, there is a key defect in the trading mechanism, that is, it can not guarantee the stability of the transaction price, the frequent ups and downs, demon stocks, and even some enterprises use rule loopholes to carry out so-called "market value management" through false prices.
With the expansion of market makers, the implementation of hierarchical system, the introduction of bidding transactions, the landing of Turnaround Mechanism and the large-scale entry of public institutions, many good things have been landed one after another, which will ultimately greatly enhance the liquidity of the new third board market. In addition, with the gradual improvement of the status of agricultural machinery industry in the manufacturing map, the number of listed enterprises in the agricultural machinery industry is increasing year by year, more and more qualified investors will pay attention to and hold equity equity of listed agricultural machinery enterprises.
Significant sample listing is expected to accelerate the pace



  It is undeniable that in recent years, due to the poor macro-environment of the industry and the increasingly fierce competition, the financial situation of listed companies has been affected to a certain extent. In addition, due to the relatively short time of listing, the positive effects of listing such as investment and financing, equity and equity flows, image enhancement and so on can not be quickly reflected in the table. Due to the large number of Listed Companies in the new third board, these have reduced the QFI's search hit rate and investment enthusiasm in the field of agricultural machinery subdivision to a certain extent.
However, the above 18 agricultural machinery enterprises listed on the new third board as pioneers, their listing road, benefit degree and actual performance after listing, all provide useful reference experience and practical examples for peers in the agricultural machinery industry. From the listed effect of the previous analysis, although the new three-board listing is not helpful to the liquidity of equity and equity of agricultural machinery enterprises, the effect of investment and financing is positive, broadening the financing channels of listed enterprises, and bringing a large amount of cash inflows to enterprises. A large number of cash inflows enable enterprises to increase R&D investment, help expand sales channels and enhance core competitiveness, which will inevitably promote the technological progress of the entire agricultural machinery industry and accelerate the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading.
_The author judges that in the next few years, the rhythm of the new three-board listing in the agricultural machinery industry will not only not slow down, but also be expected to accelerate, and there will be many small and medium-sized enterprises in the field of agricultural machinery circulation "players". Three years later, the number of agricultural machinery enterprises listed on the new third board is estimated to reach 50-70.
According to the statistics of the Association of Agricultural Machinery Industries, in 2015, there were 2319 agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises in China, of which the number of enterprises still operated by a generation of entrepreneurs aged 55 and over was not small. In addition, according to the statistics of the Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association, the number of agricultural machinery circulation enterprises in China is nearly 12,000, but most of the sales of agricultural machinery circulation enterprises are less than 20 million yuan.
For these small and medium-sized enterprises, owing to the long-term registration system and the high threshold of IPO, it is almost impossible for them to realize the circulation, liquidation and inheritance of wealth on the motherboard and GEM. In addition, waiting for the merger and reorganization of leading enterprises in the industry or new players in the cross-border industry is still vague and passive.
_The new three-board market after expansion is expected to open a window of hope for small and medium-sized enterprises in the agricultural machinery industry and start-up entrepreneurs to provide financing, valuation, equity flow and enterprise display platform. The new third board market is also expected to become the incubator and reservoir of the main board market. As the tower base of the capital market pyramid, the new third board market provides a perfect hunting ground for the listed companies and leading enterprises in the main board to search for the acquisition targets of small and medium-sized agricultural machinery industry with good quality and moderate volume. In addition, after the stock reform and listing, the financial norms and transparency of the new three-board listed companies will be greatly improved, which can not only improve the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions between buyers and sellers, but also promote the improvement of capital allocation efficiency of China's capital market, which is conducive to industrial integration and market structure optimization of the agricultural machinery industry.